000
AXNT20 KNHC 282322
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 2N40W 2N53W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-22W... 
AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE NEAR 31M85W PRODUCING 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A GOOD AMOUNT OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 25W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N AND E OF 93W. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT TO INCLUDE S TEXAS...THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT...CONTINUED 
EASTERLY RETURN FLOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS AND 
MEXICAN COASTS W 0F 94W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A 
NEW COLD FRONT TO REACH CENTRAL TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH INLAND 
CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO 
BEYOND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ALONG 20N74W 20N81W 18N84W. BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. 
FURTHER W...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS FROM 
14N-20N BETWEEN 84W-91W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE ALSO OVER PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N 
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE 
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 70W-85W...AND OVER THE STATIONARY 
FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. 
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME 
RESIDUAL SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER PANAMA.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N55W TO 24N64W 
TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 120 NM E 
OF THE FRONT N OF 23N...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE S BAHAMAS. A 1028 
MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N31W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 19N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE 
CENTER FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 44W-47W...AND FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 
43W-46W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N47W IN 24 HOURS 
WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.  

$$
FORMOSA