000 AXNT20 KNHC 281741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N30W 3N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 9W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 25W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO STRETCH A RIDGE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NW BAHAMAS TO THE SE AND ANOTHER RIDGE S-SW TO SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREAS ARE BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...MOIST SWLY AND MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE SE GULF ARE GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND THE NW GULF N OF A LINE FROM NEW ORLEANS TO TUXPAN MEXICO. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS GRADUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE W ATLC...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IN THE W ATLC ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N78W TO 18N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS SW FROM THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING... HONDURAS...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA. E-NE TRADE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE OBSERVED E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE E PACIFIC ITCZ AXIS ALONG 7N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N AND PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. FURTHER ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION IS THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N65W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N71W THEN STATIONARY TO EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED E OF THE FRONT FROM 25N64W TO 20N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH S OF 25N. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA TO NEAR 30N60W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 33N51W IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 48W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-28N BETWEEN 43W-48W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 11N56W TO 18N54W. POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N31W. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CLIPS THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 31N BETWEEN 15W-22W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. $$ HUFFMAN