000
AXNT20 KNHC 271750
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST FRI NOV 27 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N15W 7N20W 3N30W 3N43W 3N51W. WEAK 
TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE ITCZ FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N 
BETWEEN 18W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NW COAST CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE 
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...BRINGING GENTLE NE WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER 
TO MOST OF THE REGION. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY 
A COOL AND DRIER AIR MASS AS NOTED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS WITH 
NOTICEABLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. GENERALLY WSW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA 
WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. THE 
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 25N TO 29N BETWEEN 86W AND 
97W. LOOK FOR THE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 
BEGINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BY EARLY TOMORROW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO THE 
N/CENTRAL HONDURAS COAST NEAR 16N86W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
ALSO AFFECTING THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND 
NICARAGUA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF 
WEAK DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRESENT ACROSS 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS 
ALONG 75W. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS 
THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN E OF 80W. MAINLY E-NE TRADE WINDS UP TO 30 
KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND 
WITH THE FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME DIFFUSE BY 
SATURDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY...AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.
    
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION 
AREA NEAR 32N68W CONTINUING TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W 
CONTINUING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM 
EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGER 
WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD AND FAR W ATLC WITH AXIS 
ALONG 72W. FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N51W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 18N46W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THIS 
UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 39W IS 
ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-28N BETWEEN 
42W-50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED W OF THIS ACTIVITY ALONG 52W 
FROM 11N-21N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE 
AZORES.

$$
GARCIA/HUFFMAN