000
AXNT20 KNHC 261108
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

9N13W 5N30W 4N50W...ACROSS A TINY PART OF BRAZIL...CENTRAL 
FRENCH GUIANA...INTO EASTERN SURINAME NEAR 4N55W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N
BETWEEN 10W AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 20N45W TO 10N40W 
TROUGH IS PUSHING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THE CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 
10N TO 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 
10N54W TO 18N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 14N 
BETWEEN 52W AND 53W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 
THE ITCZ NEAR 10N40W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE EAST OF 
105W SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. THE FLOW 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY. THE 
FRONT IS STATIONARY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 31N77W TO
FLORIDA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO A 1013 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N83W. THE FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS 
THE WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN MEXICO IN 
BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ALL THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE 
WATERS JUST OFF THE CUBA COAST NEAR 22N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W 
AND 76W...AND A LITTLE BIT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO 22N TO THE WEST OF 81W. COLD AIR 
ADVECTION WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN 
ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 78W...IN THE AREA OF 
A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN COASTAL 
COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS SENDING ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO 
JAMAICA...AND THEN THE FLOW CURVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN 
WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALREADY IS AFFECTING AND HAS BEEN 
AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 
20N BETWEEN 64W AND THE EASTERN U.S.A. COAST. ONE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 39N56W TO 22N55W 
TO 17N55W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 
21N44W TO 10N40W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM 10N TO 22N 
BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A THIRD TROUGH IS ALONG 32N35W TO 25N38W.

$$
MT