000
AXNT20 KNHC 250611
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

7N12W 6N30W 8N41W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N60W. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 
13W...FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 27W...FROM 10N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 34W AND 35W...AND FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE UPPER 
LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 24N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 
37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 41W/42W FROM 4N TO 14N. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 41W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. TO THE 
LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE MEXICO COAST AT 20N. THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL 
LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO COAST ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN 20W AND THE 
TEXAS BORDER. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA  
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO A LOCATION THAT IS 
ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE SOUTH 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA 
THAT IS NEAR 22N94W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE MEXICO COAST
FROM 20N TO 25N. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN 
INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND FROM THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 25N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND 91W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W...IN THE
AREA OF A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN 
COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF NICARAGUA.
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 
17N TO THE WEST OF 84W ARE IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS
SENDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA TO JAMAICA...AND THEN THE FLOW CURVES EASTWARD ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALREADY IS AFFECTING 
AND HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 
20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE EASTERN U.S.A. COAST. ONE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N61W TO 30N57W 
TO 24N51W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 28N 
BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 32N44W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 29N46W TO 14N43W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 
47W...AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.

$$
MT