000 AXNT20 KNHC 241747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N22W 6N37W 6N41W 7N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 39W FROM 4N TO 13N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 2N-16N BETWEEN 25W-39W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS N-NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 22N42W TO 10N47W AND IS PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC FURTHER ENHANCING THE CONVECTION E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT SKIRTS ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM GALVESTON TO CORPUS CHRISTI. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI S THROUGH BROWNSVILLE TO 23N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF 92W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS ALONG 96W. ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM NEAR MELBOURNE TO SARASOTA AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N85W 26N90W TO 24N93W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N BETWEEN 83W-94W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE GULF E OF 92W AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF WATERS...STRONG NLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST TO FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 18N BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS ACTIVITY IS CONTINUING TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS CONVERGE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-85W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 60W-65W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N73W AND CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N74W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR MELBOURNE. THE FRONT LACKS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 72W EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS TO BEYOND 32N72W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS COVERS A MAJORITY OF THE W ATLC...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER EAST...A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. ONE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 36N66W TO 31N58W AND IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ANALYZED ALONG 31N BETWEEN 54W-62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 53W-62W. THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 48W N OF 25N AND SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N50W TO THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 31N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS SW FROM THE 1012 MB LOW TO 26N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 42W-53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 33N17W TO 20N45W. $$ HUFFMAN