000 AXNT20 KNHC 240521 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 24 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N13W 7N25W 7N34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 5N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 18W AND 54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE FORMED FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 95W AND 100W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO HAVE FORMED FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...IN AN AREA WHERE THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA... THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 31N69W TO 16N71W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL THAT EXTENDS FROM EAST CENTRAL COLOMBIA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SHEARING THE TOPS OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W...IN AN AREA OF A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT/TROUGH PASS THROUGH 31N76W TO JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 23N40W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 27N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W...AND FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM 19N TO 24N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N47W TO 27N50W...FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N45W...THAT IS ALONG A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N50W TO 31N60W AND THEN BEYOND 32N64W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 34W...WITH AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. $$ MT