000
AXNT20 KNHC 231148
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST MON NOV 23 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

9N13W 5N40W 7N51W...ACROSS NORTHERN SURINAME...AND BEYOND GUYANA
AND 6N60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN
26W AND 28W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE
AREA FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 23W AND 35W. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION 
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ALONG 51W/52W FROM 6N TO 11N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARIES FROM 23/0000 UTC CONTINUED AS WEAKENING BOUNDARIES
INTO 23/0600 UTC. THE WHOLE FRONTAL STRUCTURE HAD DISSIPATED 
COMPLETELY BY 23/0900 UTC. ONLY A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
A 1015 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N80W
TO 28N81W IN FLORIDA...TO 26N84W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 23N
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST 
OF 85W IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS 
COVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO 23N IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BETWEEN 
69W AND 78W...IN THE AREA OF A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. 
THIS PRECIPITATION SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND 
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THANKS TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER 
LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 32N70W 17N70W.
A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS 
SHEARING THE TOPS OF THE CLOUD DEVELOPMENTS THAT ARE ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE ITCZ IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE 
SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 76W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 55W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF SCATTERED STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N 
TO 31N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 
26N TO 28N BETWEEN 53W AND 54W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20W FROM 31N TO 27N. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N BETWEEN 22W AND
23W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N41W TO 
21N37W TO 18N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 45W AND 47W.
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM
15N TO 24N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W.

$$
MT