000
AXNT20 KNHC 222352
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 7N20W 4N35W 6N48W 5N53W 
6N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N 
BETWEEN 24W-29W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N 
BETWEEN 45W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N97W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENTS E TO A TRIPLE 
POINT AT 30N85W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO S 
GEORGIA ALONG 31N81W 32N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO EXTENDS S 
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N86W 22N94W 
18N96W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE WARM 
SECTOR OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 
79W-85W. ELSEWHERE...A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST 
OF TEXAS NEAR 28N97W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...THE EASTERN HALF OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
GULF PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SIGNIFICANT 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO THE 
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN 24 HOURS...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING S TO THE CENTRAL GULF...AND A WARM FRONT CONTINUING TO 
SOUTH TEXAS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN. A 1006 MB LOW 
IS CENTERED INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N77W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND 
COSTA RICA FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 77W-84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER 
THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 21N73W THROUGH THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE TO 17N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PUERTO 
RICO AND HISPANIOLA. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS 
DOTS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA NAMELY N OF 15N AND W 
OF 85W TO INCLUDE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
BROAD RIDGE WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 72W IS OVER THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS. 
EXPECT...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN 
W OF 78W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N58W TO 
26N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 
26N-28N BETWEEN 56W-58W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E 
ALONG 31N49W 27N48W 24N49W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 48W-51W. A LONG 
FRONTAL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E ATLANTIC ALONG 31N15W 30N23W 
27N30W 30N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. 
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE N 
FLORIDA COAST...AND MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N 
OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-55W.  
                                                           
$$
FORMOSA