000
AXNT20 KNHC 221134
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

9N13W 5N35W 7N48W...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA...NORTHERN 
SURINAME...AND BEYOND NORTHERN GUYANA AND 6N60W. ISOLATED AND 
DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 18W
AND 45W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS ALONG 16N47W TO 10N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
COVER THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 11N TO 17N
BETWEEN 44W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FOR AT LEAST 
THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE 
NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH NOW PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE GULF COAST TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
THE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS IN SOUTHEASTERN 
LOUISIANA. AN OCCLUDED FRONT GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM THERE TO THE 
FLORIDA GULF COAST NEAR 29N83W. THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 
THE TRIPLE POINT SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM
26N TO 29N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND 85W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 
NORTHERN HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SURROUND HISPANIOLA 
FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA 
OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 78W AND 82W MAY BE RELATED
TO AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA 
TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ONE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 31N57W TO 
21N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W 
AND 65W ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...AND ARE RELATED 
TO THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 21N61W TO NORTHERN 
HAITI. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
31N52W TO 24N50W TO 20N46W TO 16N47W TO 10N47W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N TO 29N 
BETWEEN 46W AND 52W. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER
WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION AT LEAST 24 HOURS 
TO 48 HOURS AGO. A THIRD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ALONG 31N41W TO 23N43W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC 
WATERS FROM 21N TO 31N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W. THE DISSIPATING 
STATIONARY FRONT FROM SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS A SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 31N12W 29N20W 28N30W 28N40W 30N45W. OTHER CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 26N32W 26N23W 
BEYOND 31N13W.

$$
MT