000
AXNT20 KNHC 220615
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

9N13W 5N33W 6N50W...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA...NORTHERN
SURINAME...AND BEYOND NORTHERN GUYANA AND 6N60W. STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. ISOLATED 
AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 17W AND 40W...AND FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.
THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W ARE NEAR THE MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 17N46W 10N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FOR AT LEAST 
THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE 
NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH NOW GOES FROM CENTRAL ALABAMA TO THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE GULF COAST TOWARD THE GULF COAST OF THE DEEP 
SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS ALONG
THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA GULF COAST. THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 
THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND TO THE NORTHERN 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WARM FRONT GOES FROM THE LOW CENTER 
TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 
COVER THE WATERS FROM 25N TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN THE 
FLORIDA GULF COAST AND 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N62W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
23N67W TO NORTHERN HAITI. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OFF THE 
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...OFF THE NORTHERN 
COAST OF HAITI...AND ABOUT 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA 
BETWEEN 70W AND 72W.  STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE 
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA
BETWEEN 78W AND 82W MAY BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. BROAD SURFACE 
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 30N58W TO 25N55W TO 20N48W...AND ULTIMATELY TO THE
AREA OF THE 17N46W TO 10N48W TROUGH THAT IS NEAR THE 
PRECIPITATION THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W...
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A NARROW MIDDLE LEVEL TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N53W TO 20N48W. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 51W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N13W IN THE 
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 30N22W TO 28N34W TO 30N44W. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS COVER THE AREA FROM 25N
TO 31W BETWEEN 40W AND 44W.

$$
MT