000
AXNT20 KNHC 211125
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SAT NOV 21 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

8N13W 5N30W 7N43W INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 6N59W. ISOLATED
AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W
AND 40W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA FROM FRENCH GUIANA TO GUYANA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 3N TO 18N. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA SUPPORTS THE 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT ACCOMPANY IT. THE 
LOW CENTER IS NEAR 27N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 
CENTER TO 26N90W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 
COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N.
SHOWER ARE MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 89W AND 94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING/WEAKENING AND
RE-DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N70W...
THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO 21N65W TO 23N60W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN. THE WIND FLOW ACROSS THIS BASIN IS WESTERLY TO 
NORTHWESTERLY AT 200 MB AND HIGHER...AND LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC 
FROM 500 MB TOWARD THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE FLOW...AS SEEN IN 
THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF YESTERDAY AND THE CURRENT 
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY...IS LARGELY CYCLONIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N72W. CLOUDS 
AND SHOWERS STILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE 
SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N74W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS 
NEAR 24N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N68W TO 28N64W. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 32N68W 31N62W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N48W. CYCLONIC FLOW AND 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE AROUND THIS CENTER 
COVER THE AREA FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 43W AND 52W. A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 42N22W TO 31N45W SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 28N30W TO 28N40W...TO
A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N40W. A STATIONARY 
FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N63W. CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W...23N52W 20N50W 
22N46W 23N35W 28N20W BEYOND 31N16W. AN UPPER LEVEL EASTERN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 26N17W TO THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS TO 8N26W.

$$
MT