000
AXNT20 KNHC 201138
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST THU NOV 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

10N14W 7N27W 8N37W 8N50W 11N60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 9N 
BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 35W...
AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ALONG 13N33W 6N40W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH 
IS ALONG 10N53W 16N58W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION FROM
6N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. A COLD 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE WESTERN 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO JUST TO THE 
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY 
OF TEXAS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 28N
BETWEEN 95W AND 96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN AND REACHES 15N59W JUST OUTSIDE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 
A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH 
OF 14N...CURVING NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH 
AMERICA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF 23N58W 21N61W 18N65W NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO 
RICO...TO 16N66W...IN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 
31N77W TO JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...THROUGH THE 
FLORIDA KEYS...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
31N74W TO 25N74W TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 21N77W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 31N71W.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 
THE 31N74W 21N77W TROUGH. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
31N63W TO 23N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 25N54W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE AREA 
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 57W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N33W TO 28N50W TO 30N63W. A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE IS 
NEAR 27N50W...WITH A TROUGH FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO 22N53W.
WAS  ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 
30N BETWEEN 44W AND 60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N32W 
17N41W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SPINNING CYCLONICALLY 
AROUND THIS TROUGH. A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ALONG 16N46W 23N45W BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE SPINNING 
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA TO THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS TO 11N39W.

$$
MT