000
AXNT20 KNHC 200604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU NOV 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

10N15W 7N22W 9N33W 7N57W 8N36W 7N44W 12N60W. ISOLATED AND 
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
4N TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 48W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
33W/34W FROM 4N TO 12N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
59W/60W FROM 7N TO 18N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT. 
THE STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 23N90W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 
23N90W TO THE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 96W AND 98W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN AND REACHES 14N61W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ANY PRECIPITATION NEAR THIS TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED ALREADY
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 14N...CURVING 
NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 73W/74W FROM 28N TO 33N. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND AND 71W.
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N55W ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 
20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER 
THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND FROM 25N
TO 30N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
25N60W 20N64W TO 16N65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N35W 17N38W. A SECOND ATLANTIC OCEAN 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 19N TO 22N. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WESTERN SAHARA
TO 18N26W AND 11N36W.

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MT