000
AXNT20 KNHC 192355
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST THU NOV 19 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 9N33W 7N45W 12N60W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE AXIS FROM 
5N-11N BETWEEN 27W-30W. AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED 
FROM 12N32W TO 5N33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
7N-10N BETWEEN 32W-37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
6N-8N BETWEEN 44W-46W...FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 49W-51W...AND FROM 
12N-15N BETWEEN 54W-57W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA 
NEAR 28N80W TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N90W. A 
WARM FRONT CONTINUES NW TO THE COAST OF SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW GULF FROM 23N-27N W OF 90W. A 
1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W. 10-15 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF N OF THE FRONTS. 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER S GULF S OF THE FRONTS. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE S GULF. EXPECT A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF 
NEAR 28N94W IN 24 HOURS WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND 
CONVECTION.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS DOMINATES THE BASIN. PATCHES OF 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA NAMELY OVER PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...NEAR THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 82W-86W...THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF 
80W...AND INLAND FROM BELIZE S TO PANAMA. THE ITCZ ALSO 
TRAVERSES NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA FROM TRINIDAD TO N COLOMBIA TO 
PANAMA WITH BROKEN TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS PRODUCING SHOWERS E OF 64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE 
CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE N OF 10N. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE IS S OF 10N DUE TO THE ITCZ. EXPECT... SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT...SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD 
ISLANDS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTS W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA ALONG 32N78W 
28N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF IDA IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC ALONG 27N58W 20N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 
23N43W 18N45W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 
23N34W 18N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS TROUGH 
AXIS. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
FROM 32N32W TO 30N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W ALONG 
29N48W 30N60W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 36N10W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO SW OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N22W. 
 
$$
FORMOSA