000
AXNT20 KNHC 180548
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST WED NOV 18 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 10N16W AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 6N30W TO 7N46W 7N25W 5N35W 
7N44W...INTO SURNAME WAS NEAR 4N53W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED 
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 3N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 47W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH RUNS ALONG 51W/52W FROM NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4N TO 
10N ALONG 51W/52W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE-SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
AND THE U.S.A. MIDWEST TO THE NORTH OF 30N...THANKS TO AN 
EASTERN MISSOURI CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY THAT IS ON TOP OF A 1010 LOW PRESSURE CENTER. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN MISSOURI CYCLONIC CENTER 
TO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE LOWER RIO 
GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. A COLD FRONT THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE
WHOLE CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH FEATURE PASSES THROUGH THE 
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 27N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 23N87W...
CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO 
MEXICO BETWEEN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND GUATEMALA. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF IDA THAT IS NEAR
27N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PART OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
THAT PASSES THROUGH 22N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 17N65W
IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
17N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. MOST OF ALL THE ISOLATED AND 
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS THAT WERE IN THE AREA FROM 17N TO 20N 
BETWEEN 60W AND 63W HAVE DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR THE STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD 
FROM THE 1009 MB REMNANT OF IDA PASSES THROUGH 22N67W TO THE 
EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE ENDING AT 18/0000 UTC WAS 
0.76 OF AN INCH...MOST PROBABLY WITH THE RAIN FROM THE 
SURFACE-TO-UPPER LEVEL WEATHER FEATURES THAT ARE RELATED TO
THE REMNANT OF IDA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...CURVING NORTHWARD
FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 27N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 22N64W TO 17N65W IN THE 
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
REMNANT OF IDA HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD SLOWLY BUT SURELY
AND NOW IS NEAR 27N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM THE REMNANT 
LOW CENTER OF IDA TO 22N67W TO THE EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 19N BETWEEN 49W AND 63W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 
32N15W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N18W TO THE CAPE VERDE 
ISLANDS TO 11N37W.

$$
MT