000
AXNT20 KNHC 152355
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 9N13W AT THE AFRICA COAST TO 7N26W 7N44W...ACROSS NORTHERN 
GUYANA AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 7N60W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH 
IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 6N TO 11N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS 
ALONG 47W/48W FROM 6N TO 12N. THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGEST 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT WERE
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO HAVE BEEN 
WEAKENING WITH TIME. WHATEVER MAY REMAIN OF THESE FEATURES BARELY
IS EVIDENT. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS 
MEXICO FROM 20N TO 25N AND ENTERING THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
BEATING UP THE REMNANTS OF THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CENTER. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUARELY ON TOP OF FLORIDA. A RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N87W BEYOND
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT OF IDA THAT IS NEAR 30N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
PART OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT PASSES ON TOP OF HAITI...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO...AND FINALLY REACHES THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N65W. STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 18N
TO 19N ALONG 69W...AND IN THE WATERS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 68W AND 69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 17N 
BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST 
OF 70W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF 70W. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...
THAT ARE RELATED MOST PROBABLY TO THE ITCZ...ARE TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W. THE DRY UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W ALSO IS KEEPING THE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 26N69W TO 24N68W TO THE EASTERN 
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMNANT OF
IDA HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD SLOWLY BUT SURELY. IT IS NOW NEAR
30N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES ALONG 31N63W 27N63W 19N66W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W...AND FROM
27N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS COVER
THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 
32N26W TO 25N34W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N19W...JUST TO THE WEST OF THE 
MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS 
NEAR 28N27W...TO 23N38W...BEYOND 32N58W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N18W 25N25W 23N36W
25N45W BEYOND 31N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
IS NEAR 16N46W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W...AND
FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 43W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS 
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W ARE IN AN AREA OF UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...BETWEEN THE 16N46W CYCLONIC CENTER AND 
THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
MT