000
AXNT20 KNHC 111737
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST WED NOV 11 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

ON 1500 UTC...THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA IS INLAND CENTERED NEAR 
LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 81.5 WEST...OR 20 MILES...35 
KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 
IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
SEE THE LATEST HPC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KWNH.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 5N40W 5N53W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-8N 
BETWEEN 20W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 
45W-50W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE REMNANT OF IDA IS NOW CENTERED OVER GEORGIA. SEE ABOVE. A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 
THE W TIP OF CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA AND THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. 20-25 
NORTHERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF 
TEXAS WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ONLY 10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH AXIS 
ALONG 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT... 
THE FRONT TO BE OUT OF THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS WITH LINGERING 
NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W TIP OF CUBA TO 
THE GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG 23N83W 17N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS RATHER LAX THUS ONLY MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 
76W-83W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS OVER 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 63W-65W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FURTHER S FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 66W-68W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA NEAR 14N89W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N65W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND 
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA FROM 
30N-35N BETWEEN 77W-80W DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM IDA. 
FURTHER E...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N66W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 
20N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1025 
MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N41W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. 
A TIGHT RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 70W-75W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N65W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. A 
BROAD TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 20W-40W.  

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FORMOSA