000 AXNT20 KNHC 110551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED NOV 11 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA IS INLAND CENTERED NEAR 30.8N 85.3W AT 11/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 50 NM WNW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE THE LATEST HPC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KWNH. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 6N35W 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 10W-14W. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 25W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM TALLAHASSEE INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N84W CONTINUING ALONG 27N83W TO 21N87W AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT AND EXTEND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WESTERN CUBA TO THE NW BAHAMAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND WESTERN GULF WATERS. AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE FOUND AS DEPICTED BY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS AN EARLIER 11/0100 UTC SCATTEROMETER PASS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO 18N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING SE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 16N BETWEEN 79W-88W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF 79W AND LIKELY INFLUENCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE E PACIFIC ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N66W WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS EXTEND INTO THE CARIBBEAN REGION...ONE ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA...AND THE OTHER THAT ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE TO 16N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N E OF 68W AND LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 67W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTEND INTO THE WRN ATLC WATERS FROM ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE SE CONUS N OF 28N W OF 75W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STATIONARY FRONT LINKED TO THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA THROUGH THE NW BAHAMAS TO NEAR 32N70W IS ALSO ENHANCING THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N64W WITH A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE NE CARIBBEAN. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE OTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N61W TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE NEAR 18N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 56W-66W AND FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 65W-69W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N61W TO 30N52W. UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS WELL AS MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 21N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 52W-65W. THE ENTIRE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N66W. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N33W AND EXTENDS ALONG 30N TO 45W AND THEN STATIONARY TO 52W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC..A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS IN PLACE ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N16W. $$ HUFFMAN