000 AXNT20 KNHC 102353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA IS INLAND CENTERED NEAR 30.7N 86.8W AT 10/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 145 MILES W OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SEE THE LATEST HPC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KWNH. HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST AND NOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 7N26W 6N42W 8N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 23W-34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 36W-42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 44W S OF 13N. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 42W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE REMNANTS HAVE FULLY UNDERGONE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE REMNANT LOW OF IDA ALONG 31N86W 25N86W 23N87W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N89W CONTINUING TO 17N90W. A SWATH OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM S OF CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N84W UP THE WRN FLORIDA COAST ALONG 25N83W 28N83W 31N82W. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN W OF 30N AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF 30N EXTENDING FROM S OF CUBA. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE GULF N OF 29N THROUGH WED. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA AS FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE WRN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SWATH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS DOWN THE WRN FLORIDA COAST TO WRN CUBA NEAR 23N84W CONTINUING TO 20N BETWEEN 82W-85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 80W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER WRN JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 18N83W AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT PORTIONS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 11N BETWEEN 77W-84W INFLUENCED BY SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ LOCATED S OF PANAMA. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 71W WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ENTERING THE ERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N64W CONTINUING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 17N65W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 13N E OF 68W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND INTO THE WRN ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA NW OF A LINE FROM 27N80W TO 32N76W ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEMS LINKED TO THE REMNANTS OF IDA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA...THE NW BAHAMAS...INTO THE WRN ATLC TO NEAR 32N70W. A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 25N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 64W-67W. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 22N62W 19N64W INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 56W-60W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG 27N59W 29N51W 31N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. THE ENTIRE LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N66W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 37N16W..AND SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN AND TROPICAL ATLC. $$ WALTON