000 AXNT20 KNHC 101157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 30.3N 88.0W AT 10/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 25 MILES S OF MOBILE ALABAMA MOVING N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IDA IS NOW COMPLETELY DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS WELL INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI TO GEORGIA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE AREA UP TO 150 NM OF THE CENTER. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N13W 7N23W 6N41W 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-14W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AFRICA AND FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 21W-30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM 11N38W TO 5N40W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL BE MOVING INLAND SHORTLY. AND WILL NO LONGER BE A MAJOR WEATHER MAKER. A 1011 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE W GULF NEAR 24N93W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE ALONG 25N88W TO JUST TO THE E OF IDA NEAR 29N86W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL US MOVING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF W OF 86W ADVECTING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR OVER THE GULF W OF 86W AND N OF 28N W OF 82W. THUS ONLY LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF N OF LOW/SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR HAVANA TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR PALM BEACH AND INTO THE W ATLC PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TRAILING TROPICAL STORM IDA WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE W TIP OF CUBA TO NEAR 27N84W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE N GULF LATER TODAY TRAILING THE REMNANTS OF IDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR HAVANA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 79W-85W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF PUERTO RICO COVERING THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N E OF 78W PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO E CUBA. THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO NEAR 13N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N E OF 70W TO OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 86W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF 12N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH WELL NE OF BERMUDA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND NW CARIBBEAN ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR PALM BEACH FLORIDA NE TO BEYOND 32N77W. A LARGE UPPER LOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N64W COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 55W-77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW NEAR 24N66W TO 30N52W. A REMNANT STATIONARY BOUNDARY ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N42W EXTENDING SW ALONG 26N56W INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS N OF THE REGION. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 16N57W TO 29N49W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 330 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 50W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA ALONG 10N/11W TO NEAR 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND MADEIRA ISLANDS. $$ WALLACE