000 AXNT20 KNHC 100004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 09 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 28.9N 88.5W AT 10/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 40 MILES ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 125 MILES S OF MOBILE ALABAMA MOVING N AT 15 KT. IDA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND THE CENTER OF IDA SHOULD REACH THE NRN GULF COAST TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC...OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 87W-91W...AND ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 83W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN 80W-87W. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES FROM CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N24W 6N38W 9N50W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 16W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 23W-27W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 36W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM IDA REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. IDA IS ENCOUNTERING STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WHICH IS KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE NE OF THE STORM CENTER. HOWEVER...A VERTICALLY ORIENTED OUTER RAINBAND WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED SE OF THE CENTER EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL N OF 22N BETWEEN 83W-86W. THIS RAINBAND LIES UNDER A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT ZONE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN GULF W OF 88W AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR ERN GULF AND FLORIDA E OF 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE SW GULF LEAVES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN NOT INFLUENCED BY IDA EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT IDA TO MOVE INLAND TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED STRONG WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN...AND CONTINUED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAIL THE REMNANTS OF IDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER RAINBAND OF IDA EXTEND ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N BETWEEN 83W-87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 77W-82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-82W IN ASSOCIATION WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE E PACIFIC ITCZ. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 17N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 62W-67W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 73W CENTERED NEAR 18N82W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 73W CENTERED IN THE ATLC NEAR 26N63W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE WRN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N65W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ERN CONUS AND INTO THE WRN ATLC W OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IDA EXTEND ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE FAR WRN ATLC N OF 30N W OF 77W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 43N30W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N44W CONTINUING ALONG 28N53W 17N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN 50W-59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 46W-62W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 50W-70W CENTERED NEAR 26N63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER TROUGH AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 11N25W IS ALSO ENHANCING THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 37N21W. $$ WALTON