000 AXNT20 KNHC 081146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N 85.7W AT 08/1200 UTC OR ABOUT 60 NM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 NM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING NW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60/75 NM RADIUS OF 20N86W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 80W-86W AND CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 15N-25N BETWEEN 77W-88W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE HAS MOVED W OF THE BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BUT SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THE CURVATURE OF THE WAVE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 40W-48W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES MOVING BENEATH DRY UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THUS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N20W 9N44W 8N55W 10N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 11W-16W INCLUDING THE COAST OF W AFRICA... FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 36W-44W...AND FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 29W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS IDA MOVES TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SE GULF WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER W TO CENTRAL TEXAS COVERING THE N GULF N OF 26N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND HURRICANE IDA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...SEE MIAHSFAT2. A SURFACE TROUGH AT 08/0900 UTC IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM S MEXICO NEAR 18N932W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 21N95W TO 25N96W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH/LOW ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 26N96W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-29N W OF 88W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE W GULF W OF 87W. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IDA IS BEING ADVECTED NE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA OVER THE SE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N E OF 87W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE IDA AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N81W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BETWEEN 74W-81W. E OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 74W WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS BEING USHERED IN ON MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS WITH A 1025 MB HIGH INLAND OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER AND 1027 MB HIGH NW OF BERMUDA WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND A SECOND 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. FARTHER E IS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N47W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 26N54W TO 24N64W THEN BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO 23N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA COMPLIMENTS OF HURRICANE IDA. THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST NE OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N34W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 12N54W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N45W TO 21N45W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 39W AND THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA ALONG 11N TO 43W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ABOVE AND ALONG THE W EXTENT OF THE ABOVE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W/47W. $$ WALLACE