000 AXNT20 KNHC 080602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 08 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AS OF 08/0415 UTC. HURRICANE IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 85.3W AT 08/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 96 NM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND ABOUT 105 NM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MOVING NNW AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 20N85W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 80W-87W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CUBA/YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE WAS RELOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 32W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 33W-46W AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE CONTINUES MOVING BENEATH DRY UPPER LEVEL NLY FLOW THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN AND THUS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 6N26W 7N44W 7N54W 9N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM LIBERIA TO SIERRA LEONE AND FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 28W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAS COVERED THE GULF IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF IDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS WITH THE MAIN 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH A 1025 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA TO CENTRAL TEXAS COVERING THE N GULF N OF 26N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SURFACE RIDGE AND HURRICANE IDA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...SEE MIAHSFAT2. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N91W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 21N95W TO 24N96W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH/LOW ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 24N96W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N92W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW COUPLED WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF 90W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED NE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND IS ALSO BRINGING MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE IDA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA OVER THE SE GULF WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 25N E OF 90W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE IDA AGAIN TONIGHT. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS MOVING N-NE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N76W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA BETWEEN 73W-76W. E OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR WITH NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATING THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS BEING USHERED IN ON MODERATE/STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 60W ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE FROM THE MAIN 1027 MB HIGH OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS BERMUDA TO 30N60W. FARTHER E IS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N48W AND EXTENDS SW TO 27N55W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY TO 25N61W WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING W TO JUST E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY E OF 64W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SHEAR AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER THE BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA COMPLIMENTS OF HURRICANE IDA. THE E ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING AN AXIS THROUGH 32N35W INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 14N52W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AFRICA ALONG 14N TO 44W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS ABOVE AND ALONG THE W EXTENT OF THE ABOVE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 45W/46W. $$ WALLACE