000
AXNT20 KNHC 071709
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.9N 84.1W AT 07/1500 UTC 
OR ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO AND 
ABOUT 270 MILES...430 KM...SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA 
MOVING N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 82W-86W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 79W-86W. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE 
REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ON THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 35W-38W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WEAK 
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N20W 7N40W 9N61W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA  
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 12W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 24W-27W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N94W. A 1029 
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N76W. NE-E 
SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH NEAR GALE 
FORCE WINDS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N W OF 94W. 
ELSEWHERE...THE E GULF HAS 20-25 KT WINDS WHILE THE NW GULF HAS 
ONLY 10 KT WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 28N W OF 
85W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 28N AND OVER N 
FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE 
OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE S GULF OF 
MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF S OF 29N. 
EXPECT..SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE S GULF AND 
YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IDA IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND STRENGTHENING. SEE ABOVE. 
TRADEWINDS ARE BASICALLY 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE 
SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 77W-80W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 
68W-72W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N75W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW FROM 
IDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W 
OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT 
...IDA TO TRACK TOWARDS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND 
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N52W 
TO 24N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 120 NM E OF 
THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE 
AZORES AT 40N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 
20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC AT 23N42W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS 
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN 38W-43W. 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
31N28W. OVER THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE 
COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 10N18W. 

$$
FORMOSA