000 AXNT20 KNHC 062355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 83.9W AT 06/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 55 NM NW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/ HONDURAS BORDER MOVING N AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF THE CENTER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 80W-87W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 28W-41W AND A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY S OF 13N BETWEEN 25W-35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-15N BETWEEN 27W-36W AND IS LARGELY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED E OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES MOVING BENEATH DRY NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THUS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE N OF 13N BETWEEN 52W-57W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 9N30W 9N33W 11N53W 11N56W TO NE VENEZUELA NEAR 10N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 24W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N82W WITH NE SURFACE FLOW OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. THIS NELY FLOW FILTERS INTO THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 06/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM 18N93W TO 22N96W. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST SOUTHWARD ALONG 97W AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 26N W OF 90W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED NE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N74W. THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO BRINGING MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SE GULF WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N BETWEEN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IDA IS ADVECTING N-NE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THIS FLOW IS ANCHORED ON AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 14N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 77W FROM JAMAICA TO 10N. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH PARTIAL ENHANCEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. EAST OF THE UPPER HIGH... RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE N-NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE CONTROLS THE W ATLC W OF 67W ANCHORED ON A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 34N82W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS UNDER BRISK NE SURFACE WINDS. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W AND EXTENDS SW TO 26N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE EAST OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 24N BETWEEN 52W-60W. THIS AREA IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAKNESS OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC REMAINING N OF 26N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN ATLC AND EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS FROM 28N42W TO 13N58W IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE LOCATED EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W. THE AREA COVERS FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 26W-41W. $$ HUFFMAN