000 AXNT20 KNHC 061741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA AT 06/1500 UTC IS NEAR 15.0N 84.0W...OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. IDA IS MOVING NORTH 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER E HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 81W-86W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS ON AN SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 27W-35W. A WEAK ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING W AT 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N20W 9N30W 11N53W TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 16W-27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 27W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA NEAR 39N81W. ANOTHER 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 25N102W. NE-E SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OF 30-35 KT OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W. ELSEWHERE...THE E GULF HAS 20-25 KT WINDS WHILE THE NW GULF HAS ONLY 10 KT WINDS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE S GULF S OF 26N. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE NE OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE S GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF S OF 28N. EXPECT..SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA IS JUST INLAND OVER E HONDURAS. SEE ABOVE. TRADEWINDS ARE BASICALLY 10-15 KT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 76W-81W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 68W-74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N76W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW FROM IDA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT ...CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N61W TO 26N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 38N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 22N46W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 38W-43W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N28W. OVER THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 8N20W. $$ FORMOSA