000 AXNT20 KNHC 050558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 05/0600 UTC IS NEAR 12.5N 83.2W...OR ABOUT 50 MILES/85 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA. T.S. IDA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. IT IS MOST PROBABLE THAT IDA WILL MAKE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W. THE WINDS OF IDA MAY REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES/85 KM FROM THE CENTER. IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 5 INCHES TO 7 INCHES ACROSS SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 15 INCHES TO 20 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE STORM SURGE MAY RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES... NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IDA MAKES LANDFALL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N76W 13N77W...SOUTHWARD ALONG 77W INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS IN WESTERN COLOMBIA FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST MAY BE RELATED TO THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 10N14W TO 7N30W TO 10N45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE BASE OF THE LATEST TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA REACHES CENTRAL ALABAMA AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN INTERIOR MEXICO 25N101W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N97W TO 14N97W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE LAST FEW DAYS...FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO SOUTHEASTERN GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT FOR THE PART TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 24N73W THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 18N75W. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS TROUGH HAS SENT SHEARING WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...TO AN AREA THAT HAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS REMAIN FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 24N63W TO 18N66W ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO...TO NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL VENEZUELA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 62W AND 67W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LOT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 30N63W TO 28N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO 29N BETWEEN 51W AND 52W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR 27N32W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 26W AND 43W. LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 42W AND 54W. $$ MT