000 AXNT20 KNHC 050000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.2N 82.9W AT 05/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 56 NM E OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA MOVING WNW AT 5 KT. IDA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA EARLY THURSDAY. LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NW OF THE CENTER FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 82W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 80W-85W...AND FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 82W-85W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF T.S. IDA AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 76W-77W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N25W 9N40W 10N52W 10N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 14W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 23W-34W. A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 36W AND 43W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHS. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 46W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W CONTINUING TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 23N85W 21N89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 84W-90W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE SW AND CENTRAL GULF S OF 25N BETWEEN 85W-97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS S FLORIDA. MOST THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NW BAHAMAS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE DYING FRONT ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ACROSS THE NW GULF. NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH NW-N WINDS UP TO 30 KT IN THE FAR SW GULF. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NRN GULF COASTLINE AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE SRN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. IDA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S IDA IS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BESIDES THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IDA...ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 84W ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN S OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-75W...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 69W-75W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY MOIST DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SE BAHAMAS ACROSS WRN HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W TO 9N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 9N-10N BETWEEN 63W-65W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR NW ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N64W CONTINUING TO 27N74W BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 77W-81W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLC SUPPORTS THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N73W TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 21N73W CONTINUING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 68W-71W. A DISSIPATING 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 25N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N63W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 39N36W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N42W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 50W-52W...AND FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 31W-42W. A LARGER SCALE UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 50W IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N50W TO 21N32W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N31W IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 30W-33W. $$ WALTON