000 AXNT20 KNHC 041204 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N81W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM...FROM 30 PERCENT TO 50 PERCENT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 16N64W 14N69W 12N70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 7N11W TO 6N20W TO 7N31W TO 10N46W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 1W AND 2W...FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG 81W SIX HOURS AGO HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD AND NOW IS ALONG THE LINE FROM A 24N77W BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 16N78W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN MOVES ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA AND IN BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE BASE OF THE 24N77W 16N78W TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 60W/61W FROM 10N TO 18N. THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE HAD WESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE LAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS. LET US SEE IF IT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY. EARLIER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT WERE FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W EITHER HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AND/OR HAVE BEEN MAINTAINING THEMSELVES. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT STARTS AT 31N70W AND EXTENDS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EVENTUALLY CURVING TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN FLORIDA AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...GOING ALONG THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND THEN CURVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 86W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 55W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 55W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N42W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N28W TO 10N24W. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 22W AND 34W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N45W TO 11N46W. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 21N TO 31N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. $$ MT