000
AXNT20 KNHC 040606
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST WEDE NOV 04 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W TO THE SOUTH OF 
16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS
A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 16N64W 14N69W 12N70W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND
73W. THE STRONG PRECIPITATION THAT IS OCCURRING IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF LAKE MARACAIBO
IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF 500 MB DIFFLUENT FLOW...ACCORDING
TO THE SAME GFS MODEL.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 7N11W TO 7N30W TO 10N48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA 
NEAR 9N61W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
5N10W 7N30W 8N40W 10N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 20N81W TO 15N81W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
CONTINUES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N81W. THE 
FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW CENTER IS QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM...FROM
30 PERCENT TO 50 PERCENT. A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH STARTS 
AT A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N62W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...CONTINUING INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N61W
TO 11N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS ARE WITHIN
30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N62W 20N60W 16N60W 11N60W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT STARTS AT 32N74W AND EXTENDS TO THE 
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF JUST TO THE NORTH OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EVENTUALLY CURVING TO THE NORTHERN 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO BETWEEN 91W 
AND 95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
THAT STARTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...GOING ALONG 
THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND THEN CURVING NORTHEASTWARD 
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. DRY AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 
86W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER 
THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 55W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 55W. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
CENTER IS NEAR 33N41W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SECOND CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N28W TO 10N24W. SHOWERS AND 
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 22W AND 34W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A THIRD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 23N45W TO 11N46W. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 
21N TO 31N BETWEEN 38W AND 53W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W 
AND 55W.

$$
MT