000 AXNT20 KNHC 031748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE NOV 03 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 10N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-83W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE WAVE IS ON AN SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 63W-71W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS ON AN SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MAXIMUM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF JAMAICA FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 75W-79W. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 6N20W 8N30W 6N36W 9N42W TO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 7W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 19W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 46W-58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N80W 24N82W 22N91W 19N93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 92W-95W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO 29N. PRESENTLY...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO S OF 21N N OF FRONT WITH NW-N WINDS 25-35 KT SEAS 8-11 FT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT HAS NORTHERLY 15-20 KT WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. A TIGHT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DRIFT SE AND EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SPECIAL FEATURE SURFACE LOW...AND TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. WINDS ARE BASICALLY 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOTED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED S OF CUBA NEAR 21N81W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER HE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 16N...WHILE CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS S OF 16N TO INCLUDE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N72W TO 30N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONTS. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 70W-74W. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N65W. A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER SE FROM 27N60W TO 23N64W.A LARGE 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N32W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 24N69W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N53W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 42W-49W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-45W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N25W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 27W-30W. $$ FORMOSA