000 AXNT20 KNHC 022334 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM THAT EXISTS BETWEEN 55W-64W MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THIS SAME REGION IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N-16N BETWEEN 57W-67W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE EXHIBITS A LOW AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE S OF 13N. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 8N30W 8N43W 11N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 29W-34W. DENSE OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180/200 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS E OF 51W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM MELBOURNE TO NAPLES AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 24N83W 22N92W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 24N BETWEEN 90W-96W. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W ALONG 24N90W TO OVER NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER AIR COVERS THE NW PORTION OF GULF AS A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER E TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THERE ARE TWO TROPICAL WAVES INFLUENCING THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND A NEWLY DEFINED 1010 MB LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N82W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N FROM JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE VIRGIN/LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N63W OVER JAMAICA TO A SMALL UPPER LOW NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO W CUBA NEAR 22N84W. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 67W WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE UPPER LOW AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 80W-83W. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE S OF 17N E OF 68W OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N75W EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MELBOURNE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 73W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS N OF 30N. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 25N74W PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT S OF 30N E OF 60W AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FARTHER EAST...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR 32N55W IS RACING NORTHWARD BUT STILL SUPPORTING A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 35N59W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS WELL SOUTH INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 16N BETWEEN 45W-61W. STRONG S TO SW UPPER FLOW E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG 52W IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 49W-56W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N57W 28N59W TO A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N62W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA E OF 55W ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 23N15W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SW ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 10N30W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE THE ITCZ. $$ WALLACE