000 AXNT20 KNHC 021802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM BETWEEN 55W-63W MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER FIELDS. SWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THIS SAME REGION IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 55W-67W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBITS A LOW-AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 71W-75W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 6N40W 7N56W AND CONTINUES ACROSS VENEZUELA ALONG 8N-9N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 10W-28W AND IS CONTINUING TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N E OF 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 34W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM MELBOURNE TO NAPLES AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 24N85W 23N92W 20N94W AND INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 82W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-24N BETWEEN 90W-95W. MOST OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER AIRMASS COVERS THE NW PORTION OF GULF AS A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE SE CONUS PROVIDING MOSTLY N-NE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY SUBSIDENT AIR COVERS THE NW AND NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N80W. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 14N W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY INCREASE OVER THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-84W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS ALONG 9N-10N ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING CONVECTION. AS THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE S OF 17N E OF 68W OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. MOIST WSW UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 36N72W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N75W EXTENDING SW TO 29N79W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT AND OVER THE W ATLC WATERS N OF 28N W OF 78W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A BROAD LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N72W PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT E OF 60W AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. FARTHER EAST... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N55W AND SUPPORTS A 1000 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N59W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIPS SOUTHWARD TO 17N BETWEEN 43W-60W. STRONG S-SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALONG 58W IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FROM 17N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 45W-58W. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONGER CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 48W-56W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO 24N62W S OF THE SURFACE LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES E OF 45W ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 40N29W. ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 23N15W AND EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS SW OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 12N25W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ITCZ E OF 28W. $$ HUFFMAN