000 AXNT20 KNHC 021152 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 02 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1000 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 34N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE LOW ALONG 29N57W 26N59W 24N64W. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW EXTENDS TO THE E ALONG 41N51W 32N49W 26N50W 21N55W THEN W N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N64W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N55W SUPPORTS THE SYSTEM. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED. HOWEVER...CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT REMAINS N OF 17N BETWEEN 45W-54W...BECOMING STRONG IN SOME AREAS NEAR THE FRONT. IF THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...THEN THE LOW COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE AS THEY WERE. THE SURFACE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NW THEN NORTHWARD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 18 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 34N58W...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE...IS SHEARING MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS TO THE N. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 53W-56W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N69W TO 6N72W MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE WAVE ALONG A LINE FROM 14N68W TO 17N63W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 9N24W 9N40W 12N54W 12N60W 9N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 12W-27W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 34W-49W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 59W-64W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR 25N81W ALONG 24N85W 23N92W BECOMING WARM ALONG 21N94W TO 18N94W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 84W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 90W-94W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS TEXAS AND NRN MEXICO TO NEAR 16N100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SRN GULF WITH AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE NW PORTION OF GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE N. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND IT THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY SUBSIDENT AIR DIPS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE N ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF HONDURAS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 82W-88W ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND W TO NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SW BASIN S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-84W DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO 11N85W AND INTO THE E PACIFIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN E OF 69W S OF 17N. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLY SUPPORTED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 13N69W TO 6N72W. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0900 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW OFF THE N CAROLINA COAST NEAR 36N75W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N76W EXTENDING TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N80W CONTINUING INTO THE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N72W PROVIDING DRY AIR ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 29N57W 26N59W 24N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE E ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 34N58W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N49W CONTINUING S ALONG 26N50W 21N55W THEN W N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 20N64W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND N OF 17N BETWEEN 45W-54W...BECOMING STRONG IN SOME AREAS NEAR THE FRONT. THE LOW SYSTEM...SURFACE TROUGH...AND FRONT ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N55W WHICH IS DRAWING UP MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS. IF THE SURFACE LOW LOSES ITS FRONTAL PROPERTIES...IT MAY BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL SYSTEM. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. TO THE E...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 40N31W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS WEDGED BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N55W AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ERN ATLC E OF 24W CENTERED OVER AFRICA NEAR 23N15W. $$ WALTON