000 AXNT20 KNHC 011150 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 01 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS THE SAME TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE 1001 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 53W FOR AT LEAST THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 62W AND 70W PROBABLY ARE RELATED TO THE TROUGH AND THEY MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W...PASSING THROUGH HONDURAS...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE BELIZE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ...THE ITCZ... 12N15W 9N28W 10N48W...INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W...AND FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... THE ONE-TIME HEALTHY LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE LAST FOUR DAYS HAS DIMINISHED IN SIZE AND INFLUENCE. ONE CYCLONIC CENTER NOW IS IN SOUTHERN BELIZE. A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER STILL IS APPARENT FROM THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR TO THE WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 86W AND 96W. SHOWERS REMAIN ALONG THE COAST FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST...AND FROM 23N89W TO 18N93W. SHOWERS REMAIN IN WESTERN NICARAGUA IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT HAS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND NORTHERN GEORGIA. THE FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD... NARROWING TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING TOWARD THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND FINALLY TO THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. SHOWERS ARE ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 94W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO THE NORTHERN COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 74W/75W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN IN THE AREA OF THE 500 MB INVERTED TROUGH SINCE 31/2245 UTC. 500 MB ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND BROAD 200 MB CYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF THAT...MIXED IN WITH THE DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...COVER THE REST OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A 32N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N TO 35N BETWEEN 45W AND 70W. THE TROUGH FROM THIS CENTER EVENTUALLY EXTENDS TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 15N60W AND 13N78W. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE 1001 MB GALE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N52W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N47W TO 24N48W... CURVING TO 19N59W AND 21N67W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. $$ MT