000 AXNT20 KNHC 310553 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 31 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 36W/38W FROM 16N TO 23N DRIFTING WESTWARD. THIS TROUGH REPRESENTS WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE 37W/38W TROPICAL WAVE. THE TROUGH HAS BROKEN AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN ALREADY-EXISTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 18N56W TO 16N61W TO A 14N65W CYCLONIC CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT THE NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH MORE THAN IT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE FRINGES OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN GUATEMALA UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS TO THE EAST OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. ...THE ITCZ... 13N16W 10N20W 7N30W 8N37W 8N50W 9N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE CARIBBEAN SEA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST THREE DAYS NOW IS SPINNING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE CENTER ACTUALLY IS IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 10N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N BETWEEN 83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 98W IN MEXICO. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTERIOR MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM WESTERN HONDURAS...ACROSS GUATEMALA... INTO MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 100W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 25N94W TO 19N96W AT THE MEXICO COAST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR 19N98W...AND CONTINUING AS STATIONARY TO 25N101W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER NEAR 27N100W. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE HAS PUSHED INTO AREA...TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 12N70W. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 18N56W TO 16N61W TO A 14N65W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 20N69W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N56W 16N61W 15N66W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N52W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 25N55W AND 20N56W. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT NOW IS ALONG 32N44W 27N50W 23N60W 23N70W... ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N80W. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH HAS BEEN DROPPING TO THE SOUTH OF 30N WITH TIME. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH THE TROUGH AND NOW IT COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 55W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N42W 28N46W 23N53W. OTHER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. $$ MT