000
AXNT20 KNHC 301753
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING 
WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING 
WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS 
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 55W-58W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 55W-61W. 

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 17N 
MOVING WEST 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N 
BETWEEN 74W-79W. 

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N26W 11N50W 12N60W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA 
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 21W-28W...FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 31W-34W... 
FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 49W-54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 51W-54W.   
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W 
TO TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. 20-25 
KT N WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER 
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA FROM 28N80W TO BEYOND 30N83W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. SE 10-15 KT 
WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE TWO 
FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
TEXAS AND N MEXICO W OF 100W SUPPORTING THE NW GULF COLD FRONT. 
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N84W. 
EXPECT THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TO MOVE SE AND EXTEND FROM THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS. ALSO 
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE 
FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER WAVE 
IS NEAR BARBADOS. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-19N 
BETWEEN 60W-67W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 999 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N50W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 26N60W 
25N70W 27N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 47W-51W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER SPAIN NEAR 40N6W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE 
HIGH TO THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 25N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 
28N25W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. 

$$
FORMOSA