000
AXNT20 KNHC 301046
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W TO THE SOUTH OF 
22N MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W TO THE SOUTH OF 
18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 53W AND 55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 
ELSEWHERE FROM NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA TO 13N BETWEEN 52W
AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W'74W TO THE SOUTH OF 
17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
REALLY IS RELATED TO THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

10N13W 7N26W 10N40W 12N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY 
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 8N TO THE EAST OF 30W...
FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 40W 
AND 50W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEYOND THE 
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO GEORGIA. UPPER 
LEVEL SOUTHERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN 
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN 
LOUISIANA TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...
AND THEN INTO MEXICO ALONG 25N. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...BEYOND THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO ALABAMA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 24 HOURS AGO
NOW IS CONFINED TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. THE 
CYCLONIC CENTER IS ALONG THE BORDER OF NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA/
SOUTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. OTHER SHOWERS COVER THE
NICARAGUA COASTLINE TO THE NORTH OF 12N AND INTERIOR NORTHERN
NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND
COASTAL COLOMBIA BETWEEN 76W AND 77W NEAR MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 17N 
TO THE WEST OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW STARTS NEAR COSTA 
RICA...MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS CYCLONIC 
CENTER...AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
STAYING MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF 15N AS IT PASSES ON TOP OF THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN 
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 31N53W TO 27N64W TO 27N77W ABOUT 60 NM TO THE 
NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 47W AND 54W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTH OF 
THE TROUGH. REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE ALONG 26N25W
23N36W 22N45W 18N57W.

$$
MT