000 AXNT20 KNHC 292352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU OCT 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W FROM 11N-20N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N MOVING WNW NEAR 10 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY BETWEEN 30W-35W AS INDICATED BY CIMSS WAVETRAK MODEL GUIDANCE. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY SHEARED EASTWARD DUE TO A 50-60 KT 250 MB JET CORE FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 37W-60W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 27W-33W. AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 31W-33W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 12 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION DUE LARGELY IN PART TO A STRONG 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET CORE ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 12N-17N E OF 60W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N23W 10N40W 11N55W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 16W-30W. SIMILAR SHOWERS AND CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-17N BETWEEN 33W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA EXTENDING FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO NEAR TALLAHASSEE. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA IN CLOSE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCES THE ENTIRE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 24N89W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY E OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N96W. NW OF THIS LINE...MOIST SWLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM NE TEXAS TO NE MEXICO NEAR 26N101W. STRONG S-SE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 30 KT ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF WITH PRE-FRONTAL ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINING N OF 24N W OF 94W. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N BEHIND THE FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF EARLY FRI. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN GULF...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE W ATLC PROVIDING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INFLUENCES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 15N82W WITH DRY NELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND FAIR SKIES N ON 17N W OF HISPANIOLA. SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS ALONG 9N OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 17N BETWEEN 73W-87W. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W FEEDING INTO A 40-50 KT SUBTROPICAL JET WITH CORE AXIS ALONG 14N. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON 15-20 KT NE TRADEWINDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS DIGGING S OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N W OF 50W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N62W AND EXTENDS WSW ALONG TO 29N75W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY WESTWARD TO NEAR FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N74W AND IS BRIDGING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ABOVE. A VERY LARGE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED WELL N OF THE REGION OVER THE FAR NE ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 32N28W EXTENDING SW TO 26N42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. $$ HUFFMAN