000 AXNT20 KNHC 291034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE WAVE'S WESTWARD PROGRESS IS BEING IMPEDED BY THIS TROUGH. THE WAVE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THE 28/0600 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. WEAKENING PRECIPITATION FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 28W...AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST OF SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA TO 8N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. WEAKENING PRECIPITATION FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 9N13W 7N20W 9N29W 10N32W 9N46W 9N54W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W...WEAKENING FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 26W...FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 31W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS BEEN PUSHED INTO THE AREA BY THE LARGE-SCALE CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF 29N83W 24N90W 20N91W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD AND OVER LAND. A STATIONARY FRONT COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 29N FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW HAS MOVED TO 15N78W ABOUT 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FROM THE 15N78W CYCLONIC CENTER IS ABOUT 180 NM WIDE AS IT PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CYCLONIC CENTER MAY BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AS THE TROUGH NARROWS IN WIDTH AS COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 11N76W NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 12N76W 12N79W 13N79W. THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS MUCH GREATER IN COVERAGE TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...FROM 11N TO CUBA BETWEEN HAITI AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND COSTA RICA...PANAMA...COLOMBIA... AND VENEZUELA IS PUSHED NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF 15N78W CYCLONIC CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 30N30W TO 29N50W TO 27N70W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE GOES FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N57W TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N70W TO 28N79W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 25N36W TO 22N49W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W TO 27N40W TO 25N50W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 18N50W 18N40W 18N30W AND BEYOND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 24N25W BEYOND 32N13W. $$ MT