000 AXNT20 KNHC 290540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 29 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W TO THE SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE WAVE'S WESTWARD PROGRESS IS BEING IMPEDED BY THIS TROUGH. THE WAVE HAS NOT MOVED SINCE THE 28/0600 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 26W AND 27W...AND FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 29W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N52W 12N54W 7N55W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SOME OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W ARE RELATED TO THIS WAVE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. ...ITCZ... 10N12W 8N19W 10N28W 11N32W 9N44W 10N53W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 10N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SOME OF THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE CARIBBEAN SEA 16N78W CYCLONIC CENTER HAS REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 27N83W 24N88W 20N90W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST/SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AREA TO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT COVERS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTH OF 28N FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW HAS MOVED TO 16N78W ABOUT 130 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FROM THE 16N78W CYCLONIC CENTER IS ABOUT 240 NM WIDE AS IT PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS MUCH GREATER IN COVERAGE TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...FROM 11N TO CUBA BETWEEN 74W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND COSTA RICA...PANAMA...COLOMBIA...AND VENEZUELA IS PUSHED NORTHWARD ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF 16N78W CYCLONIC CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE STRETCHES FROM 30N30W TO 29N50W TO 27N70W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE GOES FROM 19N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 80W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 28N57W TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N65W TO 28N79W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N34W TO 26N38W TO 22N47W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 28N40W TO 26N49W. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM GUADELOUPE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 18N50W 18N40W 18N30W AND BEYOND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 24N25W TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS NEAR 27N19W BEYOND 32N14W. $$ MT