000
AXNT20 KNHC 280528
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC FOR GOES-12 IMAGES...AND THROUGH 0500 UTC
FOR METEOSAT-8 IMAGES.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N26W 13N28W 8N28W
MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
13N TO 14N BETWEEN 26W AND 29W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 11N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W TO THE SOUTH
OF 17N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
COVER AND/OR ARE AROUND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS
FROM DOMINICA TO GUADELOUPE. BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF 84W.

...ITCZ...

9N13W 12N27W 9N40W 9N55W 10N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS INLAND...TO THE NORTH OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM EL SALVADOR...THROUGH THE 
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEYOND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE RIDGE...UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS COLD FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND THEN 
STATIONARY FROM THERE CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EASTERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN
100 NM TO 200 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
NORTHERN GUATEMALA TO 25N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ROLLING ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...COVERING PRACTICALLY THE WHOLE AREA. THE ONLY
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS NOT BEING COVERED BY THE 
CYCLONIC FLOW IS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 84W. THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS NEAR 17N72W TO THE SOUTH OF HAITI. THE 
CYCLONIC FLOW IS COMPARATIVELY STRONG ENOUGH IN ORDER TO DEFLECT 
AWAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT IS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE AREA 
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS JUST TO THE WEST OF 
COLOMBIA AND TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
COVER AND/OR ARE AROUND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM
DOMINICA TO GUADELOUPE...AND THEN AROUND AND TO THE SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS FROM GUADELOUPE TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO
THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 30W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
ON TOP OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE AREA
OF A 700 MB-TO-500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS
MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NOW IS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W 
AND 75W. THE SECOND AREA OF 700 MB-TO-500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM 
IS NEAR 26N60W. CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE ARE FROM 25N TO 28N
BETWEEN 60W AND 63W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH 
PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...
TO 25N17W AND 17N30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N20W 28N21W
TO 24N23W. 

$$
MT