000 AXNT20 KNHC 261719 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. THE WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 17W-26W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 17N MOVING N NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 13N24W 8N34W 12N50W 11N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 24W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 39W-47W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 12N60W TO 8N61W SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N80W TO 25N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 82W-85W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE WRN GULF FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 88W-95W. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY MOIST SWLY AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE BASIN AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WRN/CENTRAL CONUS AND MEXICO. SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FLOW ANTI-CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH SE WINDS REACHING 25 KT IN THE FAR NW GULF. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE SE GULF TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM WRN CUBA NEAR 22N85W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 17N91W IS PROVIDING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN INHIBITING SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO ERN CUBA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN 77W-82W OFF THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COAST RICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF CUBA FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS DOWN THE ERN FLORIDA COAST FROM A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 31N78W CONTINUING ALONG 29N81W 26N80W TO 25N83W. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS DISSIPATING. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ALONG THE FRONT AXIS AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW N OF 29N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N54W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 29N61W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE S...E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...CENTERED NEAR 16N58W IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 23N57W TO 23N62W. FARTHER E...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N24W EXTENDING ALONG 24N31W 24N37W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 21W-24W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 30W-37W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 23N WITH AXIS ALONG 23N41W 27N28W CONTINUING N ALONG 27W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 23N E OF 50W. $$ WALTON