000 AXNT20 KNHC 260523 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 19N MOVING N NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOWING CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 47W-52W. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 8N30W 12N50W 10N62W. A SMALL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 57W FROM 9N-14N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 54W-59W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 21W-25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 25W-31W... FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 37W-43W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 43W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N80W 25N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 80W-82W. FURTHER W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 94W-96W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA NEAR 39N79W PRODUCING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 5-10 KT NE WINDS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. 15-20 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING 70-90 KT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W GULF WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER S FLORIDA TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO ADVECT OVER TO TEXAS AND THE NW GULF IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WILL ALSO HAVE RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO RETURN FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO THE E COAST OF HONDURAS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 79W-82W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1014 MB LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA NEAR 30N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S TO SOUTH FLORIDA TO 26N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 77W-79W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N53W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N27W 27N36W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 32N24W 27N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF FRONT AND TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N61W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30W-50W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N56W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N25W. $$ FORMOSA