000
AXNT20 KNHC 251041
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 21N MOVING N NEAR 20 KT. 
WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOWING CYCLONIC CURVATURE 
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 40W-46W. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 10N21W 7N30W 8N50W 7N60W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
WEST AFRICA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 16W-120W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 24N80W 21N90W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 
79W-82W. FURTHER W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 93W-96W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N88W PRODUCING 10-15 KT N WINDS 
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W. 10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER 
THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE GULF PRODUCING 70-90 KT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE 
COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RESIDUAL 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA AND THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W. GENTLE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SMOKE IS NOTED ALONG THE N COAST 
OF PUERTO RICO WHERE LOCAL ESE WINDS WILL BACK TO E WINDS OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SW 
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-90W TO INCLUDE COSTA RICA...AND 
NICARAGUA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N79W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE 
CENTER IS PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-20N BETWEEN 
72W-75W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. 
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N78W TO THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS 
FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A 1028 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 39N56W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N35W 29N45W. THE TAIL END OF A 
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N27W 
28N32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THIS FRONT. 
ANOTHER 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N11W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
30N68W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
BETWEEN 30W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E 
OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
16N47W PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 
11N-13N BETWEEN 50W-54W.      

$$
FORMOSA