000
AXNT20 KNHC 250538
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 22N MOVING N NEAR 5-10 KT. WAVE 
IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOWING CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG 
THE WAVE AXIS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY ALONG THE 
ITCZ FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 35W-42W. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N13W 9N20W 7N30W 7N40W 11N51W 
9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG 
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 15W-17W. CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-33W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 28N80W 24N81W 
21N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 
23N-25N BETWEEN 79W-82W. FURTHER W...SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 
95W-96W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N88W 
PRODUCING 10-15 KT N WINDS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 90W. 
10-15 KT SE WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF PRODUCING 70-90 KT SW UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH 
CLOUDS. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA 
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W. GENTLE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SMOKE IS NOTED ALONG THE N COAST 
OF PUERTO RICO WHERE LOCAL ESE WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY BACK TO E 
WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-90W TO INCLUDE COSTA 
RICA...AND NICARAGUA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW 
IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N79W. UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 
13N-16N BETWEEN 71W-74W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER 
THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...MORE CONVECTION OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N79W TO FLORIDA NEAR 
28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-27N 
BETWEEN 70W-80W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
41N57W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W 29N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM 
OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
38N12W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N68W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC E OF 30W. IN THE TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 16N47W PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 42W-46W.      

$$
FORMOSA