000
AXNT20 KNHC 241050
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 21N MOVING N NEAR 10 KT. WAVE 
IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOWING CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG 
THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS MOSTLY ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 32W-36W...AND FROM 
10N-13N BETWEEN 36W-39W.  

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N20W 9N30W 15N45W 
10N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 11W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 15W-20W...AND 
FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 20W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 44W-47W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 27N85W 23N90W 
19N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 94W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT NW WINDS 
ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 5 -10 KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W 
OF 90W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 
25N86W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W... AND 
OVER N FLORIDA N. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS 
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO N OF CENTRAL 
CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 
70W-80W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA....JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA.  
FURTHER S...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 78W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N78W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. CONSIDERABLE 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. 
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA ALONG 78W 
S OF 29N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 29N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A 1023 
MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N64W. ANOTHER 1019 MB HIGH 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N35W. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N30W 25N42W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 42W-45W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC.    

$$
FORMOSA