000
AXNT20 KNHC 240533
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 21N36W TO 12N38W MOVING NW NEAR 10 
KT. WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOWING A 
CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 33W-38W. 

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 7N20W 10N32W 16N45W 
11N63W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST 
OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 8W-15W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 
16W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 
7N-10N BETWEEN 25W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 43W-47W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 27N86W 21N95W 
19N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 95W-97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. 10-15 KT NW WINDS 
ARE N OF THE FRONT WHILE 5 -10 KT SE WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W 
OF 93W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF 
NEAR 25N90W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W... 
AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 23N BETWEEN 83W-89W. EXPECT THE COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO N OF EASTERN 
CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA N OF 18N 
BETWEEN 72W-80W. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
BETWEEN 70W-75W. FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 80W-84W. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER 
THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA ALONG 77W 
S OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF 27N BETWEEN 70W-80W. A 1023 
MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N66W. ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N43W. A FRONTAL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N30W 26N40W 23N50W 23N60W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
BETWEEN 70W-80W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC.    

$$
FORMOSA