000 AXNT20 KNHC 221750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA... CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN ORIENTATION ALONG 18N31W 15N35W 10N37W MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE ORIENTATION OF THIS WAVE AT THIS MAP TIME IS RELATED TO THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH RESPECT TO SOME SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS THAT ARE BELIEVED TO BE ALONG THE WAVE. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 28W AND 36W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE...SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION AND DISPLACING THEM TO THE EAST. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 14N43W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. ...THE ITCZ... FROM AFRICA NEAR 13N16W TO 9N30W 9N40W 9N52W INTO NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN THE COAST OF AFRICA AND 15W...FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT JUST ENTERED THE GULF WATERS AS OF THE 22/1500 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO 24N96W TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 18N93W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 93W AND 94W. THE FORECAST FOR THE FRONT IS FOR IT TO BECOME DIFFUSE IN THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA AND IN FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN GULF AFTER MONDAY. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N75W...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA BETWEEN 76W AND 77W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N79W...TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 12N83W. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W/84W AT THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN... CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 65W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 18N44W TO 16N59W TO 12N64W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS FROM THE AREA BETWEEN 70W AND THE 26N75W-TO-CENTRAL NICARAGUA TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD CROSSING 70W LITTLE BY LITTLE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N67W 17N68W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE. THIS FEATURE IS WEAKENING WITH TIME. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 64W FROM 20N TO 23N JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 26N56W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 27N44W TO 23N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N49W BEYOND 32N44W...AND 22N48W 25N44W 28N39W BEYOND 32N37W. $$ MT